The opening days of President Donald Trump’s second term were characterized by an aggressive posture, driven by the expectation that the establishment, the media, and major institutions would offer “pre-emptive surrender” to his power. However, according to political analysts, recent weeks have seen one of the President’s worst political losing streaks since the January 6th events of 2021. This deterioration is not just evident in polls, but is confirmed by a wave of resignations rocking the administration and, most notably, the panicked phone call made by the President himself into an election race that should have been an easy victory.

The sudden shift from seemingly invincible dominance to a state of being “cornered” is a story of shifting power dynamics. While initially, powerful institutions like Big Tech, Big Law, and elite universities decided to “play by Trump’s rules,” the resistance has now broadened. It began with everyday Americans—those who protested deportations at ICE facilities, the over 7 million people who attended “no kings” protests across the country—and jurors who refused to “rubber stamp” politically motivated Department of Justice cases against administration opponents. Once these individuals started saying “No,” it created the “permissive structure” for larger resistance to form.

Now, that resistance has coalesced into a “chorus of dissent” against the President.

From Mass Resignations to the Tennessee Special Election

The clearest manifestation of this political unraveling is the wave of resignations within the Republican ranks in Congress. This turnover threatens to disrupt the Republican party’s fragile majority in the House and potentially place Donald Trump in the position of a “lame duck” President early in his second term.

The most recent resignation bomb came from Mark Green, a Republican Congressman representing Tennessee. Green announced his resignation from Congress immediately after the passage of a major policy bill aimed at advancing Donald Trump’s domestic agenda. His departure was fueled by being “so disgusted” and “so done with it” that he was compelled to leave to pursue a career in the private sector. This act is a clear sign of the mood within the Republican Party: certain members are no longer afraid of Trump’s power and are willing to defy him publicly.

Green’s resignation triggered a special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District on December 2nd, a race that should have been an afterthought. The President won this district by a staggering 22 percentage points just a year ago. Yet, what is causing the President to panic is that the race is now closer than ever, with only about a two-point margin separating the Republican candidate and the Democratic challenger.

The fact that Donald Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson felt the need to jointly host a “teletown hall” to stump for the Republican candidate in such a supposedly “safe” seat shows utter bewilderment. This should have been a race the campaign viewed as an “afterthought.” Trump’s panic is warranted: if the Republicans lose this seat, it will intensify pressure and create a real threat that the House could flip to Democratic control, leading to a deeper constitutional crisis for the administration.

The Worst Political Losing Streak

Political analyst Chris Hayes summarized Trump’s political predicament: “These have been the worst weeks he’s ever had.” This string of losses is not just anecdotal but is substantiated by tangible events:

The Democratic Tactical Shift: Democratic leadership in the Senate stopped “rubber stamping” Trump’s proposals. After accepting his budget proposals in the spring, they refused to pass a Republican-only drafted spending bill in September, leading to the longest shutdown fight in history.

Healthcare and Tariffs Boomerang: Despite conceding ground on healthcare subsidies for millions of people, Democrats successfully framed the political narrative, centering healthcare as a top priority. The Republican failure to address outstanding Obamacare issues resulted in soaring premiums, heavily penalizing Republican members in swing districts. Furthermore, the President’s initiation of a trade war and imposition of tariffs increased the cost of everything while bankrupting many American farmers (particularly soybean farmers in Tennessee).

Off-Cycle Electoral Success: This shift was evidenced by off-cycle elections earlier in the month, where Democrats flipped the Governor’s mansion and state legislature in Virginia, and maintained the New Jersey Governor’s seat for three consecutive terms—a continuous string of “L after L after L” for Donald Trump.

All of this suggests that Trump’s grip on both the American public and the Republican Party itself is loosening, making Congress members less fearful of him and more willing to resign en masse.

Afton Bane and the Coalition of the “Disenchanted”

Into this political turmoil, the Democratic candidate in Tennessee, Afton Bane, is effectively capitalizing on the administration’s failures. Bane is campaigning with a core message focused on “affordability”—“make living affordable again”—and addressing the “chaos in Washington.”

Bane is building a “coalition of the disenchanted”—people who feel that politics is no longer working for them. This strategy is successfully appealing even to voters who previously cast ballots for President Trump. A prime example is a lifelong Republican in Clarksville who emailed Bane, pledging his vote because of the Affordable Care Act (ACA). This voter receives health insurance through the ACA at a cost of only $57 a month for his entire family, and without those subsidies, his premium would skyrocket to about $500—an unacceptable cost.

Bane is also publicly committed to reversing the tariff policies that are bankrupting Tennessee farmers. This is more than a policy message; it is an assurance that she will fight to eliminate direct cost burdens pressing down on traditional Republican voters.

Bane’s campaign exemplifies a new trend in Democratic politics: focusing not on the ideological spectrum (left versus right), but on “top versus bottom.” Bane is fighting to eliminate the sales tax on groceries in Tennessee—one of only nine states that still taxes food—focusing on basic living standards and decency for all Americans.

The combination of President Trump’s political failures, the disgusted resignations of Republican members, and Afton Bane’s effective campaigning centered on the cost of living has turned a seemingly hopeless race into a nail-biting battle, triggering the ultimate panic within the Trump administration. This chaos is a clear warning that everything the President touches, even the safest seats, is slowly crumbling.