The Downfall of an Empire: Patrick Mahomes Under Siege as Mike Tomlin Confronts a Historic Crisis

The National Football League (NFL) is witnessing a season of major upheaval, where some of its most established dynasties are facing the risk of historic collapse. The Kansas City Chiefs, the reigning empire of the Patrick Mahomes era, are on the verge of missing the playoffs, while the Pittsburgh Steelers confront the possible firing of head coach Mike Tomlin—an unprecedented event in his 16-year tenure.

Top ESPN analysts, including Peter Schrager and Kimberly Martin, dissected the core issues pushing these two powerhouse franchises into precarious positions, ranging from the unexpected decline of an offensive genius to the exhaustion with an organization’s unwavering standard.

Chapter 1: The Chiefs on High Alert – 12% Playoff Odds

The Kansas City Chiefs, the team long regarded as the benchmark for excellence, are facing a pivotal, do-or-die clash against the Houston Texans. Peter Schrager issued a chilling warning: should the Chiefs lose this Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium, their chances of making the playoffs will plummet to a mere 12%.

The shift in perception of the Chiefs is staggering. Just 11 months ago, during the Wild Card round, the Chiefs were 10-point home favorites against the Texans. Currently, they are only 3.5-point favorites. This difference highlights not only the surging reputation of the Houston Texans but also how “vulnerable” the Chiefs are perceived to be.

The core issue lies with the offense and its leader, Patrick Mahomes. Nick Wright, an analyst, admitted that it is “hard for us to let go of the belief in Patrick Mahomes,” but this version of Mahomes is “not his usual brilliant self” that everyone remembers. He is still very good, but he lacks the absolute genius that was propelling him toward the Greatest Of All Time discussion.

Uncharacteristic Mistakes from Mahomes:

High Interception Rate: Mahomes has thrown interceptions in crucial games against Jacksonville, the Bills, Denver, and the Colts, especially in uncharacteristic situations in the red zone, where he traditionally excels with “Mahomes Magic.”

Perceived Pressure: Experts pointed out that the issue is not just the sack count, but “perceived pressure.” This pressure disrupts Mahomes’ internal timing, causing him to release the ball a “split second late or a split second early,” leading to unnecessary turnovers.

The Terrifying Texans Defense: The Texans defense, spearheaded by D’Meco Ryans, is the embodiment of resilience and presents no weakness to attack. They recently held Daniel Jones to a 50% completion rate and logged eight sacks against Josh Allen of the Bills in a prior week. This defensive capability allows the Texans to maintain complex coverage without relying on excessive blitzing.

In short, Mahomes will have to play a perfect game to defeat a defense described as a “nightmare,” something he has struggled to do consistently this season. If they lose, the Chiefs dynasty faces severe jeopardy.

Chapter 2: Mike Tomlin and the Historic Crisis in Pittsburgh

While the Chiefs face potential downfall, the Pittsburgh Steelers organization is grappling with a potentially historic decision regarding the future of head coach Mike Tomlin. Tomlin is a legend: he has been the head coach for 16 years, has never had a losing season (above .500), and has won one Super Bowl.

However, the pressure for change is reaching a breaking point. Former Steelers legends, including James Harrison and Ben Roethlisberger, have openly debated on their podcasts that “maybe it’s just time” for a change.

The Fatigue with “The Standard Is The Standard”:

Playoff Drought: The Steelers have not won a playoff game since 2016. Jeff Saturday stressed that “The standard is the standard,” but being consistently down by 21 points in playoff games and losing by large margins indicates that the “standard” is no longer good enough.

Failed Strategy: The decision to “go all-in” this season, including paying TJ Watt significantly and having one of the most expensive defenses in the league, has resulted in a “terrible” defense.

Risk of Historic Firing: Analysts believe that if the Steelers miss the playoffs, Tomlin’s protective “armor”—the over-.500 streak—will be broken. Peter Schrager stated, “It feels like he’s playing for coaching for his job right now.”

Tomlin’s departure would likely not be a negative firing (like Bill Belichick’s situation) but rather a mutually beneficial “parting of ways.” Tomlin would be immediately sought after by other teams and television networks, but the Steelers need a “fresh voice” and a “fresh thought” to break their current stagnation.

Many compare this scenario to Andy Reid’s departure from the Eagles after leading them to six Conference Championship games. Saying goodbye to a great coach is possible when a team reaches a point where they are “not going to get better” than what they have demonstrated over a long stretch.

Chapter 3: AFC Volatility – The Need for Systemic Change

Beyond these two major stories, the entire AFC is experiencing volatility. Along with questioning the Steelers’ coaching situation, experts also discussed other personnel issues, including Justin Jefferson of the Vikings. Kimberly Martin suggested she would not be shocked if Jefferson wanted out of Minnesota, as he is an extraordinary talent playing with too many subpar quarterbacks.

However, the focus remains on the necessary change required in the NFL. The lesson learned from parting ways with Tom Brady and Peyton Manning—who went on to other teams and won Super Bowls—shows that change is not the end of the world but can be a new beginning.

For the Chiefs, a loss and potential elimination would be a “wasted” season and a painful lesson for Patrick Mahomes. For the Steelers, if Tomlin departs, it would mark the end of an era, opening the door for experimentation and a redefinition of “the standard.”

Both narratives reflect an essential truth in the NFL: greatness is not permanent. To sustain success, an organization must be willing to change, adapt, and sometimes, make the most courageous and painful decisions. Ultimately, professional football does not tolerate stagnation, even from its greatest individuals or organizations.